Head-to-head win rates for the top 16 archetypes by meta share. Sources: MTGO Challenge playoff brackets, TopDeck.gg paper event swiss rounds.
Sources: TopDeck.gg, mtgo · Data since Jan 2026 · 225 matches
| ↓ vs → | Paradoxical Outcome | Raker Shops | Sphere Shops | Mono-White Initiative | Lurrus PO | Esper Lurrus Control | Dredge | Dimir Lurrus Control | Lurrus Breach | Oath of Druids | Lurrus Vault Key | Mono-White Aggro | Blue Control | Prison Shops |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paradoxical Outcome | 50%22m | 38%26m | ~14m | ~11m | ~4m | ~3m | ~6m | — | ~1m | — | — | ~3m | — | |
| Raker Shops | 50%22m | ~9m | ~7m | ~5m | ~4m | ~8m | ~6m | ~5m | ~5m | — | — | — | — | |
| Sphere Shops | 62%26m | ~9m | ~3m | ~2m | ~2m | ~3m | ~6m | ~3m | ~5m | — | — | — | — | |
| Mono-White Initiative | ~14m | ~7m | ~3m | ~3m | ~3m | ~3m | ~6m | ~3m | ~2m | — | — | — | — | |
| Lurrus PO | ~11m | ~5m | ~2m | ~3m | ~1m | ~3m | ~5m | ~2m | ~5m | — | — | — | — | |
| Esper Lurrus Control | ~4m | ~4m | ~2m | ~3m | ~1m | ~2m | — | ~1m | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Dredge | ~3m | ~8m | ~3m | ~3m | ~3m | ~2m | ~3m | ~5m | ~3m | — | — | — | — | |
| Dimir Lurrus Control | ~6m | ~6m | ~6m | ~6m | ~5m | — | ~3m | ~3m | ~6m | — | — | — | — | |
| Lurrus Breach | — | ~5m | ~3m | ~3m | ~2m | ~1m | ~5m | ~3m | ~2m | — | — | — | — | |
| Oath of Druids | ~1m | ~5m | ~5m | ~2m | ~5m | — | ~3m | ~6m | ~2m | — | — | — | ~1m | |
| Lurrus Vault Key | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Mono-White Aggro | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Blue Control | ~3m | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Prison Shops | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ~1m | — | — | — |
Cells show row archetype win rate vs column archetype. ~ = fewer than 20 matches (low confidence). Hover any cell for the win-loss record.